https://mschalberger.github.io/tag/r/RHugo Blox Builder (https://hugoblox.com)en-usThu, 07 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://mschalberger.github.io/media/icon_huea4c2c30a4f75ae13f649c1a215d5c7a_68535_512x512_fill_lanczos_center_3.pnghttps://mschalberger.github.io/tag/r/https://mschalberger.github.io/post/wm2026-monte-carlo/Thu, 07 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://mschalberger.github.io/post/wm2026-monte-carlo/<p>Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Together with colleagues at FU Berlin, I worked on a fun project that uses <strong>Monte Carlo simulation</strong> based on Elo ratings to predict tournament outcomes, from the group stage all the way to the final.</p> <p>The simulation draws on historical match data and team strength estimates to run thousands of tournament replications, producing win probabilities for each of the 48 competing nations.</p> <p>👉 <strong><a href="https://www.wiwiss.fu-berlin.de/wm2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Explore the full simulation and results here</a></strong></p>