Simulating the 2026 FIFA World Cup with Monte Carlo Methods

May 7, 2026 1 min read

Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Together with colleagues at FU Berlin, I worked on a fun project that uses Monte Carlo simulation based on Elo ratings to predict tournament outcomes, from the group stage all the way to the final.

The simulation draws on historical match data and team strength estimates to run thousands of tournament replications, producing win probabilities for each of the 48 competing nations.

👉 Explore the full simulation and results here

Monte Carlo Sports Statistics R
Marc Schalberger
Marc Schalberger
PhD Candidate in Statistics

I am a PhD candidate at the Chair of Applied Statistics at the Freie Universität Berlin. I am currently working on network analysis, in particular the extension and application to signed networks.